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Track record

Every prediction on formcurve is frozen before kick-off and then graded by fixed rules — hits and misses alike. This page shows the complete record, unfiltered.

How often we got it right — transparently, misses included. Only predictions frozen before kick-off count.

45.8%Hit rate
542graded
0.236Brier score

Calibration

50-60%
44%
43.6%
n=511
60-70%
63.1%
82.8%
n=29
70-80%
75%
50%
n=2

predicted actual

By market

Result45.6%n=533
Podium50%n=4
Winner60%n=5

By competition

Serie A60%n=40
La Liga50%n=54
Eredivisie57.7%n=52
Primeira Liga56.6%n=53
Bundesliga51.9%n=27
Championship36.1%n=83
Formula 155.6%n=9
3. Liga38.2%n=55
Ligue 136.1%n=36
2. Bundesliga40%n=45
Premier League42.5%n=40
DFB-Pokal28.1%n=32
NFL62.5%n=16

How the record is built

  1. 1

    A reasoned prediction

    Before every match and race we form an assessment — researched (form, absences, qualifying) or as a transparent statistical baseline. Always with reasoning and sources.

  2. 2

    Frozen at kick-off

    At start time the prediction is stored immutably, including a checksum. Retrospective polishing is therefore impossible.

  3. 3

    Deterministic grading

    After the event the official result decides hit or miss by fixed per-market rules — no room for interpretation.

  4. 4

    Everything counts

    All frozen predictions are included, the wrong ones too. No cherry-picking, no after-the-fact selection.

The metrics explained

Hit rate
Share of predictions where the most likely selection occurred. Limited on its own — a high rate built on favourites winning is no great feat.
Brier score
Measures how well the probabilities themselves hold up (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip). Penalises overconfidence as much as excessive caution.
Calibration
Compares claim and reality: if we say 65%, roughly 65 in 100 such cases should occur. Deviations reveal systematic over- or underconfidence.

Frequently asked questions about the track record

Why do only frozen predictions count?

Because that is the only way to prove the assessment existed before the result. At kick-off every prediction is stored immutably with a checksum.

What does the Brier score mean?

It rates the quality of the probabilities, not just right or wrong. 0 is perfect, 0.25 equals a coin flip — lower is better.

Why is the record based on so few predictions?

A record only becomes meaningful from roughly 30 graded predictions. Until then we show the honest state instead of building a rate out of lucky hits.

Are these betting tips?

No. formcurve is editorial and gives no betting advice — this is about transparency, not stakes.

See current predictions

Every prediction sits with its match or race — including reasoning, sources and later the retrospective.

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